Examining the System-Wide Effect of Eliminating Bail in New York City: A Controlled-Interrupted Time Series Study
This builds upon the initial report in the Data Collaborative for Justice’s Bail Reform and Recidivism Series – Does New York’s Bail Reform Law Impact Recidivism? A Quasi-Experimental Test in New York City.
Using controlled-interrupted time series analysis (CITS), this follow-up study estimated the effect of New York’s initial reform on recidivism in New York City by comparing re-arrest rates between bail-ineligible versus bail-eligible offenses before and after the reforms.
Eliminating the option to set bail under the reform was not associated with a change in overall re-arrest, felony re-arrest, or violent felony re-arrest rates within either two years or during the pretrial period (capped at 6 months of tracking).
For “high risk” individuals with a separate pending case at the time of arraignment, there was an increase approaching statistical significance in violent felony re-arrest within two years, and a statistically significant increase in violent felony re-arrest within the pretrial period. There were no differences in overall re-arrest or felony re-arrest rates for this same subgroup.